Monday, December 18, 2006

Deutsche Bank AG, Germany's largest bank, cuts its forecast for oil prices in the first quarter of 2007 by 5.8 percent because of slower U.S. economic growth.

Crude oil in New York may average $66 a barrel in the first quarter, down from a previous forecast of $70, the bank's Chief Energy Economist Adam Sieminski said in a Dec. 15 report. Prices may rebound later in the year, Deutsche said, keeping its forecast for average prices in 2007 unchanged at $62 a barrel.

Economic growth in the U.S., the world's largest energy consumer, may slow next year because of lower consumer spending and rising unemployment, Deutsche said. That will cut demand for auto fuels as motorists make fewer journeys. A warmer-than-usual winter in the U.S. may also cut demand for heating fuel made from crude oil, the report said.

``We are lowering our first quarter 2007 forecast in response to the slowdown in the U.S. economy and possibly milder winter than normal,'' Sieminksi said in the report titled: ``Oil Market Outlook: It's the Economy.''

West Texas Intermediate oil, or WTI, will average $65 a barrel in New York in the first quarter of 2007, according to the median forecast of 19 oil analysts surveyed by Bloomberg, including Sieminski.

Crude oil in New York rose 2.3 percent last week to a two- week high of $63.43 a barrel after the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries agreed to cut oil production for the second time in three months.