Wednesday, November 15, 2006

Oil prices rose Wednesday after the U.S. government reported that gasoline inventories declined for the fifth straight week to their lowest level this year.

Crude prices failed to breach $60 a barrel, though, as supply worries were calmed by a big rise in crude inventories, mild weather in the Northeast, and skepticism that OPEC cuts will come to fruition.

Light sweet crude for December delivery rose 48 cents to settle at $58.76 a barrel Wednesday on the New York Mercantile Exchange, easing back after reaching $59.40 in earlier trading.

Heating oil futures rose 2.92 cents to settle at $1.6924 a gallon, and unleaded gas rose 3.47 cents to $1.5795 a gallon. Natural gas futures rose 14.3 cents to settle at $8.120 per 1,000 cubic feet.

It's unlikely crude prices will emerge anytime soon from their recent range of about $58 to $62 a barrel, analysts say. After declining from a summer peak above $78 a barrel, oil prices have hung close to these levels, even as the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries in October announced a 1.2 million barrel a day production cut and violence in Nigeria raised supply worries.

"The market's been kind of stuck in this range for a month and a half," said Tom Bentz, analyst at BNP Paribas Commodity Futures in New York. "We have to go a long way to the upside before we break higher."

Some OPEC members have suggested they might make further cuts at their meeting in December. Until hard evidence surfaces over the next few weeks that the OPEC cuts are being implemented in earnest, though, many traders remain skeptical _ which has helped to keep prices from swinging dramatically higher on falling product inventories and still-strong demand.

Crude oil inventories rose 1.3 million barrels to 336.0 million barrels last week, the Energy Information Administration said Wednesday in its weekly report.

Gasoline inventories fell by 3.7 million barrels to 200.3 million barrels.

U.S. inventories of gasoline have fallen about 7 percent over the past five weeks to levels that are about the same as a year ago, when Gulf Coast producers were still recovering from hurricanes Katrina and Rita. Refiners have been trimming production on the back of a 25 percent drop in oil prices over the past few months.

"Gasoline inventories flat on a year ago really does indicate that this market is anything but oversupplied," said Tim Evans, energy analyst at Citigroup Global Markets. He added, though, that the decline appears to be a result of planned refinery maintenance, rather than any emergency.

Distillates, which include heating oil and diesel fuel, fell by 3.6 million barrels to 135.0 million barrels. A small rise in heating oil was offset by a large drop in diesel fuel.

Demand for distillate fuel has been stronger than usual. The EIA reported that demand for distillates over last four weeks has been the highest four-week average ever for any period that doesn't include January or February, when cold weather usually causes heating oil demand to peak.

The EIA noted, though, that the high demand numbers could be due to retailers and consumers buying fuel to pad their own inventories ahead of winter.

Refinery production decreased to 87.3 percent last week from 88.1 percent in the previous week.

Profit margins for oil companies have been squeezed as oil prices have dropped; on Tuesday, the Commerce Department reported that lower gasoline sales were the main reason U.S. retail spending fell 0.2 percent in October.

Last week the International Energy Agency trimmed its outlook for 2006 global oil demand growth to 1.1 percent from 1.2 percent. The forecast for growth in demand for 2007 was maintained at 1.7 percent.