Tuesday, October 31, 2006

Crude oil traded below $59 a barrel Tuesday after posting the biggest one-day decline in more than a year yesterday on forecasts that warm U.S. weather will curb demand and bolster stockpiles.

Higher-than-usual temperatures are expected in most of the U.S. from Nov. 6 until Nov. 12, the National Weather Service reported. U.S. crude inventories, already 12 percent above their 5 year average probably rose 2.7 million barrels last week, according to a Bloomberg News survey.

``Crude oil inventories in the U.S. and all over the world are sufficient,'' said Tetsu Emori, chief commodity strategist at Mitsui Bussan Futures Ltd. in Tokyo. ``The oil price is losing momentum.''

Crude oil for December delivery traded at $58.30 a barrel, down 6 cents, in after-hours electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange at 11:18 a.m. Singapore time.

Yesterday, the contract fell $2.39, or 3.9 percent, to $58.36, the biggest one-day decline since Aug. 17, 2005. Futures were down 4.6 percent from a year ago. Prices have fallen 25 percent from the record $78.40 a barrel reached July 14.

``You get a forecast for warmer weather and down prices come,'' said Rowan Menzies, a commodity market analyst at Commodity Warrants Australia Pty in Sydney. ``The U.S. looks pretty well supplied as of today.'

In London, Brent crude oil fell 3 cents to $58.65 a barrel on the ICE Futures exchange at 11 a.m. Singapore time.

U.S. Stockpiles

U.S. crude oil stockpiles unexpectedly fell in the week ended Oct. 20 when the Louisiana Offshore Oil Port, the largest U.S. import terminal, shut because of bad weather. The port, which was closed for about 70 hours, caught up on imports in about two days.

U.S. stockpiles of crude oil, diesel, heating oil and gasoline in the week ended Oct. 20 were higher than the five- year average for the period, the Energy Department said last week.

The forecast for mild temperatures in the U.S. Northeast is delaying the expected rise in demand as the coldest winter weather period approaches, said Andrew Harrington, an industrials analyst at Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Ltd. in Sydney.

``You'd be looking for late December-January to be the big cold period in the Northeast of the U.S. and we should start seeing some increase in demand heading into that period,'' Harrington said. ``It seems to be a bit slower in coming than usual. Some anticipation of that had been built in to the price and now we're seeing it being taken out again.''

OPEC Cuts

The decline in oil prices since mid-July prompted the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, which produces about 40 percent of global supply, to agree to reduce output by 1.2 million barrels a day starting Nov. 1. OPEC ministers will review their cuts when they next meet on Dec. 14.

Saudi Arabia, the biggest oil producer, will definitely implement the 1.2 million barrel-a-day reduction in output that the group announced earlier this month, Khalid al-Falih, a senior vice president with state-run Saudi Aramco, said yesterday.

``There will be no delaying, no backpedaling,'' al-Falih said at a meeting with U.S. oil company officials in Washington.

Oil prices also fell yesterday because of waning concerns about the security of Saudi Arabia's Ras Tanura oil terminal, Menzies said.

Naval forces from the U.S.-led coalition were sent to protect the terminal after the threat of a terrorist attack from the sea, reports said.