Tuesday, October 17, 2006

Oil prices fell by more than $1 a barrel Tuesday as traders awaited fresh supply data from the U.S. government and a clearer message from OPEC, which meets later this week.

An economic report that raised questions about economic growth also contributed to the selling, analysts said.

Light, sweet crude for November delivery declined by $1.01 to settle at $58.93 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. On Monday, the contract jumped $1.37, in part because of soaring natural gas futures prompted by forecasts calling for colder weather.

Societe Generale's director of commodity strategy Michael Guido said there hasn't been significant buying any time crude futures rise above $60 a barrel and that he expected prices to tread water until Thursday's OPEC meeting.

Guido said if the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries formally announces a 1 million barrel-a-day production cut _ a move that has been rumored for more than a week _ it won't necessarily send prices higher.

"In my opinion, the OPEC cut has already been digested by the market," he said.

Guido and other analysts say OPEC may need to enforce a larger output reduction if it seeks to prop up prices.

Also weighing on the market on Tuesday was a report by the Federal Reserve, which said output at the nation's factories, mines and utilities fell by 0.6 percent in September, the worst showing since the widespread shutdowns caused by Hurricane Katrina a year ago.

Manufacturing output dropped 0.3 percent, with widespread declines in auto production and other consumer goods, reflecting the fact that factories are trimming production to work down a backlog of unsold items.

Lower industrial activity often translates into weaker energy demand.

One factor that could give the market some direction is the weekly supply report due out Wednesday by the U.S. Energy Information Administration, a division of the Energy Department.

Analysts surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires expected weekly petroleum inventories data to be released Wednesday to show a decline of 900,000 barrels in distillate stocks, which include heating oil.

U.S. weather forecasts for a cold blast to hit the Rockies and below-normal temperatures in much of the eastern two-thirds of the country later this week led to a 14 percent jump in natural gas futures Monday.

In London, Brent crude for December delivery on the ICE Futures exchange traded at $61.80 a barrel, up 14 cents.

The impact of any OPEC cut remains to be seen, with traders eager to see whether OPEC merely reduces its official output quota or reduces production from current levels, which are already slightly below the quota.

The last time OPEC reduced its output _ also by 1 million barrels a day _ was December 2004 when oil traded slightly above $40 a barrel.

Since a mid-July high of $78.40 a barrel, the price of crude oil has dropped by about 25 percent due to rising global inventories, concerns about slowing economic growth and a milder-than-anticipated hurricane season.

In other Nymex trading, heating oil futures fell by 2.27 cents to settle at $1.7338 a gallon while gasoline futures fell by 2.84 cents to settle at $1.4633 a gallon. Natural gas futures declined by less than a penny to settle at $6.442 per 1,000 cubic feet.