Monday, October 23, 2006

Crude oil was little changed after dropping 1.9 percent on Oct. 20 in New York amid speculation the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries will fail to cut production by as much as planned.

Oil-price gains soon after OPEC's Oct. 19 accord to cut output have been wiped out because of speculation compliance by members such as Saudi Arabia and Kuwait won't be enough to pare global inventories. U.S. crude supplies are 14 percent higher than their five-year average. Over the weekend, Saudi Arabia told Japanese refiners to expect lower shipments in November.

``It may be enough to stop the fall but it's not enough to cause a rebound,'' said Anthony Nunan, assistant general manager of international petroleum business at Mitsubishi Corp. in Tokyo. ``Even though what Saudi is doing should be considered bullish, I think people fell we still need some drawdown in inventories before we can really get bullish.''

Crude oil for December delivery fell as much as $1.07, or 1.8 percent, to $58.26 a barrel in after-hours electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. It was 2 cents lower at $59.31 at 1:07 p.m. Singapore time.

On Oct. 20, the December contract fell $1.17, or 1.9 percent, to $59.33 a barrel. The November contract, which expired at the close on Friday, fell 2.9 percent to $56.82, the first time this year that the monthly contract nearest to delivery closed below $57 a barrel.

Twenty-one of 49 analysts, traders and brokers in a weekly Bloomberg News survey said prices will decline this week. Fourteen forecast an increase and 14 predicted little changed. The survey was carried out before OPEC formally announced production cuts.

Brent Falls

In London, Brent crude oil for December settlement fell as much as 45 cents, or 0.8 percent, to $59.23 a barrel on the ICE Futures exchange. It was at $59.57 at 1:23 p.m. Singapore time.

The 4.4 percent reduction starting Nov. 1 will be based on how much members were pumping last month, rather than quotas, United Arab Emirates Oil Minister Mohamed al-Hamli, who will become OPEC president in 2007, said Oct. 20 after members met in Doha, Qatar.

The 10 OPEC members with quotas produced 27.6 million barrels a day last month, lower than the combined quotas of 28 million barrels a day. Nigeria, Iran, Venezuela and Indonesia now pump less oil than their official allocations or quotas, according to Bloomberg estimates. Algeria, Libya, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates are pumping more.

``There are doubts about the ability of OPEC to really stick to the cuts that they've stated,'' said Andrew Harrington, a commodities analyst at Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Ltd. in Sydney. ``The announced cut was greater than expected but it still didn't seem to scare the market very much. We're likely to see more softness.''

Stockpiles Gain

U.S. crude oil inventories surged 5.02 million barrels to 335.6 million in the week ended Oct. 13, the Energy Department reported Oct. 18, the biggest increase since March.

Supplies of distillate fuel, a category that includes diesel and heating oil, and gasoline fell in the week. U.S. refineries had their lowest operating rate since April as companies shut units for maintenance.

``We are likely to see more of what happened last week, with crude inventories up and products down,'' Harrington said.

The U.S. gasoline pump price fell eight cents in the past two weeks to $2.20 a gallon, the lowest this year, as crude oil prices declined, Trilby Lundberg said, citing her survey of about 7,000 filling stations nationwide.

Prices for regular gasoline have declined 82.5 cents from a record average $3.025 a gallon reached in mid-August as lower demand following the end of the summer driving season has kept inventories above average. Wholesale gasoline futures in New York fell to the lowest since February on Oct. 17.

Heating oil for November fell as much as 1.85 cents, or 1.1 percent, to $1.6615 a gallon in after-hours trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. It was at $1.6796 a gallon at 12:09 p.m. Singapore time.

Gasoline futures rose 0.13 cents, or 0.1 percent, to $1.4685 a gallon at 10:37 a.m. Singapore time.