Tuesday, October 24, 2006

Exxon Mobil Corp., the world's largest publicly traded oil company, reports earnings for the fiscal third quarter on Thursday. The following is a summary of key developments and analyst opinion related to the period.


OVERVIEW: Even though oil prices began to slide at the quarter's end, a barrel of crude averaged about $70 during the period -- roughly in line with the second-quarter average and up from $63 a year ago.

On the retail side, gasoline prices climbed as high as $3 a gallon in early August, then fell to $2.43 a gallon by the end of September thanks to a surge in supply, particularly from overseas. That decline is expected to crunch margins and weigh heavily on oil companies' refining and marketing businesses.

Analysts expect the integrated oil companies, on average, to post weaker third-quarter earnings, compared with the 2005 quarter that saw a rally in oil and gasoline prices in the wake of hurricanes Rita and Katrina.

However, analysts generally expect Exxon Mobil to report more than 20 percent year-over-year earnings growth.

Over the past year, Exxon Mobil has set two corporate financial records: The company posted revenue of $100.72 billion in the third quarter last year -- the highest ever recorded by a U.S. public company in a single quarter. And in the fourth quarter, Exxon Mobil reported a $10.71 billion profit, record quarterly earnings for a U.S. public company.

BY THE NUMBERS: Analysts forecast earnings of $1.58 per share, according to a Thomson Financial poll.

ANALYST TAKE: JPMorgan analyst Jennifer Rowland expects Exxon Mobil to post a 23 percent jump in third-quarter profit compared with the prior year. But she expects results to come in roughly flat with the prior quarter, as lower gas prices tempered slightly higher crude prices.

Exxon Mobil has three major businesses: oil and gas production, refining and marketing -- which includes crude oil processing as well as sales at the company's chain of gas stations -- and chemicals. Rowland sees a 25 percent jump in oil and gas production earnings and a 54 percent increase in chemicals profit, offset by a 15 percent drop in profit from refining and marketing.

Refining margins crashed in September and dragged down the average for the quarter, said Lehman Brothers analyst Paul Y. Cheng. He expects more modest earnings growth from Exxon Mobil at 10 percent.

STOCK PERFORMANCE: Shares of Exxon Mobil climbed 9 percent over the course of the third quarter and are up about 20 percent since the start of the year. They traded recently just under $70 a share.